Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for EARL-16 in Guatemala, Belize from 02 Aug 2016 16:00 UTC to 03 Aug 2016 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for EARL-16

in Guatemala, Belize

03 Aug 2016 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EARL-16 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Guatemala, Belize
Exposed population	110 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (04 Aug 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Guatemala)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	130 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to 130000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	02 Aug 2016 16:00	102	8.7 million	No people	Honduras, Belize, Mexico, Guatemala
2	02 Aug 2016 21:00	111	12.9 million	No people	Honduras, Belize, Mexico, Guatemala
3	03 Aug 2016 03:00	120	36 million	90 thousand	Belize, Mexico, Guatemala
4	03 Aug 2016 09:00	130	41.4 million	130 thousand	Belize, Guatemala

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	02 Aug 2016 16:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	16.3, -80.2
2	02 Aug 2016 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	26000 people	16.4, -81.5	Honduras
3	03 Aug 2016 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	110000 people	16.4, -83	Honduras
4	03 Aug 2016 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	500000 people	16.1, -83.7	Honduras
4	03 Aug 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	111	11000 people	1.4 million people	16.5, -85.5	Belize
4	04 Aug 2016 06:00	Category 1	130	130000 people	940000 people	17, -87.9	Guatemala
4	04 Aug 2016 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.3 million people	17.5, -90.3	Guatemala
4	05 Aug 2016 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	6.3 million people	18.1, -92.4	Mexico
4	06 Aug 2016 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	35.8 million people	19, -96	Mexico
4	07 Aug 2016 06:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	19, -100	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Belize
Guatemala

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Belize	Belize
Stann Creek	Belize
Orange Walk	Belize
Cayo	Belize
Peten	Guatemala

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Stann Creek Town	Stann Creek	Belize	City	-
Belmopan	Cayo	Belize	Capital	13000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)
Melinda	MDB	unknown
Dangriga	DGA	unknown
Melchor de Mencos	MCR	unknown
Uaxactun	UAX	unknown
Carmelita	CMM	unknown

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Stann Creek		Belize

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico. This height is estimated for 04 Aug 2016 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (151 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 06 Aug 2016 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Aug 2016 03:00	Ciudad del Carmen	Mexico	0.5
	04 Aug 2016 03:00	Paso Real	Mexico	0.4
	04 Aug 2016 03:00	Boca Nueva	Mexico	0.4
	03 Aug 2016 21:00	El Capulin	Nicaragua	0.4
	03 Aug 2016 21:00	Cedeno	Honduras	0.4
	03 Aug 2016 21:00	Santo Tomas	Nicaragua	0.4
	03 Aug 2016 21:00	Mangle Alto	Nicaragua	0.4
	03 Aug 2016 21:00	Barrancones	Honduras	0.4
	06 Aug 2016 03:00	Anton Lizardo	Mexico	0.4
	06 Aug 2016 04:00	Veracruz	Mexico	0.3
	06 Aug 2016 01:00	Buen Pais	Mexico	0.3
	06 Aug 2016 01:00	Alvarado	Mexico	0.3
	06 Aug 2016 02:00	Salinas	Mexico	0.3
	04 Aug 2016 00:00	Gualora	Honduras	0.3
	04 Aug 2016 00:00	Condega	Honduras	0.3
	04 Aug 2016 03:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	04 Aug 2016 03:00	Sabancuy	Mexico	0.3
	03 Aug 2016 00:00	Cauauira	Honduras	0.3
	03 Aug 2016 07:00	Dapat	Honduras	0.3
	04 Aug 2016 11:00	Stann Creek Town	Belize	0.2
	05 Aug 2016 08:00	Francisco I. Madero	Mexico	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 08:00	San Pedro	Belize	0.2
	05 Aug 2016 21:00	Montepio	Mexico	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 09:00	Chetumal	Mexico	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 09:00	Calderita	Mexico	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 00:00	Conejo	Mexico	0.2
	03 Aug 2016 07:00	Kaski	Honduras	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 12:00	Santeneja	Belize	0.2
	05 Aug 2016 08:00	Hidalgo	Mexico	0.2
	05 Aug 2016 13:00	Monte de Oro	Mexico	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 11:00	Commerce Bight Village	Belize	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 09:00	El Volcancillo	Honduras	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 11:00	Freetown Area	Belize	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 09:00	Mullins	Belize	0.2
	05 Aug 2016 09:00	Chiltepec	Mexico	0.2
	05 Aug 2016 04:00	San Pedro	Mexico	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 05:00	Laja	Mexico	0.2
	03 Aug 2016 07:00	Barra de Caratasca	Honduras	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	Tamiahua	Mexico	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 05:00	Hacienda La Chepona	El Salvador	0.2
	05 Aug 2016 10:00	Tupilco	Mexico	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 05:00	Ursulo Galvan	Mexico	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 05:00	Salmoral	Mexico	0.2
	03 Aug 2016 09:00	Claura	Honduras	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 03:00	Noham	Mexico	0.2
	05 Aug 2016 13:00	Sanchez Magallanes	Mexico	0.2
	05 Aug 2016 13:00	Tonala	Mexico	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 07:00	Tecolutla	Mexico	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	Nautla	Mexico	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	El Laurel	Mexico	0.2
	03 Aug 2016 11:00	Barra del Patuca	Honduras	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 15:00	Dos Hermanas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 15:00	Calderas	Mexico	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 00:00	Las Pozas	Nicaragua	0.2
	05 Aug 2016 15:00	Majahual	Mexico	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 02:00	Porfirio Diaz	Mexico	0.2
	04 Aug 2016 02:00	Chenkan	Mexico	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	Cabo Rojito	Mexico	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	El Naranjal	Mexico	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	La Mata	Mexico	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	Agua Dulce	Mexico	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	San Dionisio del Mar	Mexico	0.2
	03 Aug 2016 07:00	Yahurabila	Honduras	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 07:00	Tenixtepec	Mexico	0.2
	06 Aug 2016 07:00	Vega de Alatorre	Mexico	0.2
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Macho Creek	Guatemala	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Puerto Barrios	Guatemala	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Corozo	Guatemala	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	La Graciosa	Guatemala	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	San Francisco del Mar	Guatemala	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Barra del Motagua	Guatemala	0.1
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	06 Aug 2016 05:00	La Majada	Mexico	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 12:00	Maya Beach	Belize	0.1
	05 Aug 2016 16:00	Solo Dios	Mexico	0.1
	06 Aug 2016 07:00	La Guadalupe	Mexico	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Machacal	Guatemala	0.1
	05 Aug 2016 14:00	Coatzacoalcos	Mexico	0.1
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	San Francisco del Mar	Mexico	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 23:00	Punta de Fisga	Cuba	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 23:00	Aguas Claras	Cuba	0.1
	05 Aug 2016 17:00	Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.1
	05 Aug 2016 17:00	Boqueron	Mexico	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 09:00	Tusi Cocal	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 10:00	Mocobila	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 14:00	Tasbarraya	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 14:00	Bruner	Honduras	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 04:00	Xcalak	Mexico	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 19:00	Guanaja	Honduras	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 06:00	Guerrero	El Salvador	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 06:00	El Carmen	Nicaragua	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 06:00	El Cacao	El Salvador	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 01:00	Guanimar	Cuba	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 01:00	El Cajio	Cuba	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 13:00	Bacalar Chico	Belize	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Cambalache	Guatemala	0.1
	05 Aug 2016 17:00	Arista	Mexico	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 16:00	Donel	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 15:00	Trujillo	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 15:00	Barranco Blanco	Honduras	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 03:00	Ranas	Mexico	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 05:00	Corral de Mulas	El Salvador	0.1
	06 Aug 2016 07:00	Monte Gordo	Mexico	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 09:00	Rio Platano	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 20:00	Rio Esteban	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 20:00	Miranda	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Puerto Castilla	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 15:00	Pital	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 20:00	Red Cliff	Honduras	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 07:00	Conchaguita	El Salvador	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 01:00	Hoquel	Mexico	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 01:00	Champoton	Mexico	0.1
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	El Mezquital	Mexico	0.1
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	El Porvenir	Mexico	0.1
	06 Aug 2016 06:00	Los Ebanos	Mexico	0.1
	06 Aug 2016 07:00	Pesqueria	Mexico	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 15:00	El Urraco	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 16:00	Iriona	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 16:00	La Puerta	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 21:00	El Cuyo	Mexico	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 03:00	Puerto Madero	Mexico	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 13:00	New Haven	Belize	0.1
	05 Aug 2016 16:00	Buenavista	Mexico	0.1
	06 Aug 2016 07:00	Emilio Carranza	Mexico	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 11:00	Monkey River	Belize	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 09:00	Huarta	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 14:00	Baltimore	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Limera	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Balfate	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Betulia	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Santa Fe	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 20:00	Black Rock	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 20:00	Barbareta	Honduras	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 00:00	El Tanque	Nicaragua	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 00:00	El Puente	Nicaragua	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 00:00	La Chacara	Nicaragua	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 00:00	Venecia	Nicaragua	0.1
	04 Aug 2016 00:00	Jiquilillo	Nicaragua	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 21:00	Alligartor Nose	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 21:00	Santa Elena	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Punta Manabique	Guatemala	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Pixoy	Mexico	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Telchac Puerto	Mexico	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 22:00	Chabihau	Mexico	0.1
	05 Aug 2016 15:00	Las Barrillas	Mexico	0.1
	06 Aug 2016 05:00	El Tular	Mexico	0.1
	05 Aug 2016 16:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.1
	06 Aug 2016 05:00	San Jose de los Leones	Mexico	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 15:00	Empalme	Honduras	0.1
	03 Aug 2016 15:00	Barra de Chapagua	Honduras	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.